Predicting possible movements for opening 5, 15, and 60 minutes based on current data.
Given the assumption of an unexpected gap-down opening due to geopolitical concerns, here’s a comprehensive analysis of the Nifty options data around the spot level and possible movements for the next 5, 15, and 60 minutes based on current data.
Current Nifty Spot Price: 25796.9
Observations from Options Data Near Spot:
- Put Options (PE) Data Near 25700-25900:
- 25700PE: LTP at 29.15 with high OI of 4,059,375 and a delta of -0.27, suggesting strong bearish sentiment around this level.
- 25800PE: LTP at 61.75 with significant open interest (OI) of 5,368,250, indicating put writers are expecting a bottom near this level.
- 25900PE: LTP at 119, with a delta of -0.73 and very high OI at 2,825,250, reflecting a bearish outlook around this range.
- Call Options (CE) Data Near 25700-25900:
- 25700CE: LTP at 148.75 with delta 0.69 and a considerable OI of 1,178,100, showing resistance near this level, but a potential move towards it if there’s a recovery.
- 25800CE: LTP at 82, with OI at 6,005,625 and a delta of 0.51, indicating that 25800 could act as a key resistance if any recovery occurs.
- 25900CE: LTP at 39.8, delta 0.31, and very high OI of 7,508,675, suggesting strong resistance above 25900.
Implications of Negative Sentiment (Sharks and Whales):
Since the sentiment from larger players is negative, this adds weight to the idea that the market could remain under pressure after the gap down, with potential continued selling or limited upside moves.
Analysis for the Next Time Intervals:
5-Minute Outlook (Post-Gap Down):
- Scenario: Immediate downward pressure is likely, with support expected around 25700 (based on PE OI and strikes with higher delta).
- Trade Action: Put options around 25700-25800 could see a quick rise in value. Sharp volatility might occur as markets react to the gap.
- Resistance: Strong resistance at 25800 and 25900 on the upside due to significant call OI, making it unlikely to breach these levels in the first 5 minutes.
15-Minute Outlook:
- Scenario: After the initial volatility, there could be a slight pullback or consolidation around the 25700 level if selling pressure eases. If the market holds, short-covering could bring the index toward 25800.
- Upside Resistance: 25800 and 25900 remain key levels due to high call OI, and they might cap any upside.
- Downside Target: If 25700 breaks, the next support could be around 25500 based on OI and delta levels of nearby strikes.
60-Minute Outlook:
- Scenario: If the market stabilizes above 25700, a recovery toward 25800 is possible, but strong resistance around 25900 is expected due to heavy call writing. The VIX increase may indicate continued volatility.
- Downside Risk: A breach of 25700 would open up downside toward 25500 or lower, as indicated by strong put OI and support positioning.
Volatility and Other Key Metrics:
- India VIX: Currently low at 11.98, but any geopolitical uncertainty could trigger a spike in volatility, impacting the theta and vega of near-term options.
- Theta and Vega Impact: With the increased implied volatility, theta decay will be high for both calls and puts, and vega will significantly impact premium prices.
Conclusion:
- Short-term Moves: Expect immediate downward pressure in the first 5 minutes, with potential support around 25700.
- Medium-term Moves: If 25700 holds, a consolidation or slight recovery towards 25800 is possible in the next 15-60 minutes. However, any upside move will likely face resistance near 25900 due to significant call OI.
- Risk: If 25700 breaks convincingly, downside targets around 25500-25600 become realistic, supported by strong put activity and negative market sentiment.
This analysis is based on current data, and adjustments may be needed if conditions change rapidly.
